Overview:
Following a contentious election, pro-European Union (EU) party The Party for Action and Solidarity (PAS) has achieved a wide victory. Yet Moldova remains a potential flashpoint if Russia were to escalate regional influence. Russia has entrenched itself in Moldova through the frozen conflict in Transnistria and disinformation campaigns. How similar are the situations in Ukraine and Moldova? What brought Moldova’s breakaway state to form? And how does this election forecast Moldova’s future?
The Election Results
Moldova’s parliamentary elections concluded with a decisive outcome: the Party for Action and Solidarity (PAS) secured 50.1% of the vote, winning a clear majority in Parliament. The pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc came in second with 24.2%, a distant but notable showing.
President Maia Sandu had long warned of Russian interference, but PAS’s victory signals strong domestic support for closer ties with the EU.
Igor Grosu
Igor Grosu, Majority Leader of PAS, alleged Russian actors engaged in a systematic campaign to undermine the election, primarily through disinformation tactics aimed at discrediting PAS, questioning EU credibility, and shifting support toward Moscow-friendly parties. Russian-funded networks shared selective content on social media, manipulated local algorithms, and circulated doctored polling data to suggest the Patriotic Electoral Bloc was ahead.
Domestically, oligarch Ilan Shor has been linked to these efforts. Shor, notorious for large-scale financial fraud, is connected to organizations like Evrazia, a Russian-backed NGO promoting post-Soviet integration under Moscow’s vision. These efforts weaken pro-Western narratives and bolster Russian influence.
Transnistria and Controversy
The election controversy intersects with Moldova’s enduring geopolitical fault line: Transnistria.
When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moldova faced difficult choices about its future alignment. Transnistria, a narrow strip along the Dniester River with a large ethnic Russian and Ukrainian population, rejected both reunification with Romania and integration under Moldova’s new laws. Key issues included:
- Language policy: Moldova’s adoption of Latin-script Moldovan alienated Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking residents.
- Historical identity: Moldova’s heritage leaned toward Romania, while Transnistria’s leaned toward Soviet Ukraine.
Transnistria
By late 1991, Transnistria declared independence. A brief war ensued, ending only after Russia intervened militarily. Since then, Russian “peacekeepers” have remained, keeping the conflict frozen for over three decades.
In this election, questions arose over Transnistrian suffrage. Opposition leader Igor Dodon claimed voters faced harassment and obstacles. While Moldovans from Transnistria can hold Moldovan passports and vote, practical barriers—crossing borders, long waits at polling stations, and reports of organized busing—complicate participation.
These allegations echo past Russian narratives of “discrimination against Russian speakers,” rhetoric previously used in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Despite Kremlin criticism of Moldova’s election infrastructure, official turnout was 52%—the highest in recent years.
Moving Forward
The PAS victory signals strong domestic support for Moldova’s European path. President Sandu and her allies are expected to push forward reforms for EU integration, including judicial reform, anti-corruption measures, and economic modernization.
However, Moldova’s path is precarious. Russian troops in Transnistria and ongoing influence campaigns mean tensions with Moscow remain high. Key questions include:
- Will Russia escalate pressure on Moldova as it has in Ukraine?
- Can Moldova navigate EU integration while maintaining domestic stability?
- Does Russia have the capacity or desire for another costly confrontation?
While these questions remain unanswered, Moldova’s election represents not just a domestic political shift, but a potential flashpoint in Europe’s broader geopolitical struggle.
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