Overview:
Missouri joins Texas’ bid to shift the balance of congressional control toward Republican majorities. But is Missouri’s case unique, and what avenues exist to prevent it?
Background: Missouri Enters the Redistricting Fight
Governor Mike Kehoe [R] of Missouri has called a special session to redraw congressional voting districts. This move aligns Missouri with Texas in efforts to reshape congressional control in favor of Republicans — a strategy strongly encouraged by former President Donald Trump.
Traditionally, redistricting occurs every ten years after the decennial census. But Missouri’s mid-decade push is highly unorthodox and raises questions about legality, precedent, and the boundaries of partisan power.
Polling forecasts suggest that the Senate leans Republican by a slim margin while the House remains closely contested (Race to the White House). Missouri’s actions could be decisive in shaping those margins.
A Break with Tradition
Redistricting mid-decade is rare. Normally, changes occur only:
- By court order, as in Alabama and Louisiana (2024).
- After partisan shifts in state institutions, like North Carolina (2023).
- To correct maps found unconstitutional, like Ohio’s ongoing case (Ohio Capital Journal).
Only two historical examples exist of mid-decade redistricting initiated voluntarily and for partisan advantage: Texas (2003) and Georgia (2005).
Missouri’s Constitutional Roadblock
Missouri may face an immediate legal barrier. Article III, Section 45 of the Missouri Constitution explicitly bars mid-decade redistricting (Justia).
Critics argue Governor Kehoe’s plan is unconstitutional from the outset. But history shows that even illegal maps often stand for years while lawsuits move slowly through courts.
Ohio offers a cautionary tale: its map fight took over four years from adoption to final ruling — well beyond an election cycle. That suggests Missouri’s redistricting, even if unconstitutional, could still shape upcoming elections before being struck down.
Could Washington Intervene?
The federal government does hold tools to challenge Missouri’s move — though political reality makes them unlikely.
- Congress has constitutional authority to regulate redistricting but is currently Republican-controlled.
- The Department of Justice (DOJ) enforces the Voting Rights Act (1965) and could intervene via injunctions or lawsuits. But the Attorney General and Civil Rights Division head are Trump appointees.
- Private citizens or organizations can sue under the Voting Rights Act, though such efforts are costly and time-consuming.
In practice, partisan incentives suggest little appetite for intervention from either Congress or the executive branch.
What Happens Next?
Missouri’s redistricting plan faces a constitutional challenge at home and possible scrutiny under federal law. Still, the slow pace of litigation combined with a favorable partisan environment means Republicans are well positioned to benefit from any changes through at least the next election cycle.
Whether Missouri’s case becomes a landmark legal fight — or another chapter in America’s long gerrymandering saga — will depend on how quickly courts and challengers act.
Sources
- Race to the WH – Senate Forecast
- National Conference of State Legislatures – Mid-Decade Redistricting
- Ohio Capital Journal – Gerrymandering History
- Missouri Constitution: Article III, Section 45
- Voting Rights Act (1965) – U.S. National Archives
More on Presence:
