Overview:
In a year defined by global youth unrest and widespread electoral controversy, Guinea-Bissau stands out as a country to watch closely. Like several of its regional peers, its upcoming election shows signs of internal sabotage and the weakening of democratic institutions. Guinea-Bissau’s political history has been dominated by coups, instability, and abrupt leadership turnover. If President Umar Sissoco Embaló secures re-election and continues leveraging military loyalty, it may set a precedent that reshapes an already fragile democracy.
The State of African Elections
Major elections across Africa in recent years have been marked by turmoil. Longstanding leaders have consolidated power, democratic openings have shrunk, and electoral processes have faced widespread criticism. This trend has intensified in 2024–2025 as global Gen Z protest movements have drawn more attention toward election legitimacy.
In Tanzania, President Samia Suluhu Hassan secured a dominant 98% victory—prompting nationwide protests the government is attempting to outlast. In Togo, President Faure Gnassingbé retained his seat amid accusations of fraud, later securing a lifelong tenure through contested constitutional reforms. Cameroon witnessed another disputed election as 92-year-old Paul Biya secured an eighth term.
Analysts fear Guinea-Bissau may follow a similar path—but its trajectory has its own distinct complexities.
Instability in Guinea-Bissau
After periods of democratization in the 1990s and early 2000s, several African nations experienced backsliding in the 2010s—a trend that continues today. Guinea-Bissau is a key example. Since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974, the country has faced persistent political fragility and institutional weakness.
Corruption inherited from colonial rule became embedded in post-independence politics, fueled by patronage networks that influence much of the nation’s governance. Guinea-Bissau’s most entrenched patronage system is tied to drug trafficking: the country is a major transit point for cocaine moving from Latin America to Europe. The UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) once labeled it “Africa’s first narco-state.”
Its primary cash crop, cashews, remains vulnerable to global market volatility—creating financial instability that further enabled illicit networks to flourish.
A History of Coups
Guinea-Bissau’s coup-ridden political landscape remains a defining factor in public distrust ahead of the election. Voters express deep disillusionment as they witness familiar signs of electoral authoritarianism echoing those seen in Togo, Cameroon, and Tanzania.
President Embaló’s administration has been accused of weakening institutions, detaining critics, and obstructing democratic processes. Unlike countries ruled by single families or dominant parties for decades, Guinea-Bissau’s instability has been cyclical and violent. Former President João Bernardo Vieira was deposed twice—the first time by coup, the second time through an attack that killed him.
The nation did not see a president complete a full constitutional term until 2020. Broader regional patterns of authoritarian drift are increasingly reflected in Embaló’s leadership.
President Sissoco Embaló
Embaló’s tenure has been defined by institutional erosion. He was accused of attempting a coup through an unconstitutional power grab after the 2020 election. He declared victory early and proceeded with inauguration preparations despite ongoing legal challenges.
In response, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) appointed Cipriano Cassamá as interim president pending further review. Embaló then deployed military forces to state institutions until Cassamá stepped aside for fear of his life. The Supreme Court dropped the case amid credible reports of death threats.
An Overextended Term
While in office, Embaló has dissolved or suspended parliament multiple times and has remained in power more than ten months beyond his constitutional term limit. Opposition groups and civil society organizations worry that regardless of election results, he may refuse to step down.
ECOWAS offered to monitor the election, but Embaló’s government expelled the delegation in March 2025. PAIGC leader Domingos Simões Pereira—seen as Embaló’s strongest challenger—was barred from running for allegedly submitting documents late. Although Embaló does not have the long-standing dominance common among entrenched autocrats, the tactics he employs align with electoral authoritarianism.
The Candidates
If Embaló wins, he would become the first incumbent in Guinea-Bissau’s history to be re-elected.
He faces eleven challengers, though the field’s strongest contender, Pereira, has been excluded. Former president José Mário Vaz—Guinea-Bissau’s first leader to complete a full term—is running again. Other candidates include a former defense minister and Fernando Dias, who switched parties to ensure the PAIGC remained represented.
Election Barriers
Barriers for opposition candidates remain high. Independent media faces significant censorship, and Embaló expelled three Portuguese public broadcasters in August. Pereira’s exclusion has severely weakened the opposition’s ability to unite behind a credible alternative. Rallies for Dias have struggled to gain traction due to his relative inexperience.
Observers expect accusations of irregularities regardless of the outcome.
The Military: A Decisive Actor
On October 31—just before the official campaign period—there was an alleged coup attempt. Security forces loyal to Embaló arrested several senior officers, including General Daba Na Walna, pointing to possible internal fractures within the armed forces. Deputy Chief of Staff General Mamadou Kourouma publicly announced the arrests.
Given the military’s historic role in political transitions, any internal split could escalate post-election tensions. A divided military raises the risk of competing factions forming, potentially setting the stage for prolonged conflict.
Conclusion
Guinea-Bissau’s longstanding instability and rapid turnover of leadership make this election especially consequential. Should Embaló win with margins resembling Tanzania’s, it could solidify electoral authoritarianism. If he loses, questions remain about whether he would willingly relinquish power. If he wins, uncertainty surrounds how the military might respond.
Regardless of the outcome, this election will define the military’s future role and reveal whether Guinea-Bissau can break its cycle of coups and institutional fragility—or remain trapped in it.
Sources:
- Baker Institute – Guinea-Bissau’s presidential poll has already failed a credibility test
- Deutsche Welle – Guinea-Bissau (general coverage)
- Reuters – Guinea-Bissau’s Embaló eyes re-election as cocaine trade, instability thrive (Nov 18, 2025)
- Al Jazeera – Guinea-Bissau arrests senior army officers for alleged coup attempt (Oct 31, 2025)
- Institute for Security Studies – Guinea-Bissau’s unusual polls could spark another post-election crisis
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