Bougainville: The World’s Next Country?

Bougainville: The World’s Next Country?

Bougainville has been lost in a battle for independence for fifty years now. An agreement between Germany and the United Kingdom in 1886 defined Bougainville as part of Germany’s colonial sphere of influence. After control shifted between Germany, Japan, and Australia, the earlier agreement informed that Bougainville would be in the same country with Papua New Guinea, rather than part of the Solomon Islands for geographical reasons, or independent due to its sociocultural identity, which was entirely unique. Since 1975, Bougainville has fought this designation, both politically and militarily. To follow the islands’ journey and future outlook, a timeline must be constructed. 

Timeline

1975 PNG Independence:

Papua New Guinea is granted independence from Australia. During this transition, Bougainville would feel intense dissatisfaction with the decision to include them under PNG’s authority. Bougainville declares itself independent as “The Republic of the North Solomons”. 

1976 First Bougainville Agreement:

A tenuous solution was reached, granting Bougainville a provincial government and a degree of autonomy.

1988 Escalation of Unrest:

Landowners reach their breaking point with the meager compensation they were given for the use of their property for mining by Bougainville Copper Limited (BCL), an Australian-based mining company. BCL operated the Panguna copper mine through an agreement with PNG, while Bougainville and its citizens received a relatively small share of the profits.

1989-1998 The Bougainville Conflict:

Escalation of unrest broke into armed combat between the Bougainville Revolutionary Army and the PNG national government. 

1997 Peace Talks:

Peace negotiations between Bougainville and Papua New Guinea were brokered by New Zealand. This resulted in the Burnham Declaration, which established a ceasefire and allowed for a neutral peacekeeping force to oversee it.

1998-2000 Ceasefire and Peace Efforts:

Three years of developments were needed to build goodwill and socio-economic development efforts, which were built both through government and grassroots reconciliation efforts.

2001 Bougainville Peace Agreement (BPA):

The treatise between PNG and Bougainville that laid out the three pillars necessary for Bougainville’s peaceful and composed transition to independence. The first of the three pillars is autonomy, with the premise of change being gradual degrees of power being instated, rather than an overnight shift. The second is the disposal of weapons used during the Bougainville Civil War, which was considered largely completed by 2005. The third pillar is for a referendum to be held, making sure that the populace is pro-independence.

2005 First Election:

The Autonomous Bougainville Government holds its first elections.

2019 Referendum:

A stark 98% of voters chose independence as the answer to the burning question posed in the referendum. This result is non-binding, but has been taken under consideration in the grand scheme for Papua New Guinea’s decision framework.

2021 Agreement:

Papua New Guinea and Bougainville formulate a planned pathway to independence set to finish in 2027. This timeline was never ratified by PNG, so they could renege on the deal if they chose to.

2023-2027 The Bougainville Integrated Strategic Development Plan (BISDP):

Bougainville is intent on leveraging its transition and resources to the best of their ability to support economic growth, human development, sovereignty, peace, security, and infrastructure. They have created a series of five year plans in order to achieve these goals. The first of these is supposed to end with Bougainville’s independence, but with PNG’s cavalier handling of Bougainville’s referendum, there is doubt in a successful transition in the short term.

Ishmael Toroama – President Speaks

There are sparks of change in the remnants of the independence pathway initially conceived. PNG seems to be moving closer to denying Bougainville independence in 2027, opting instead for an indefinite delay. Prime Minister James Marape has interpreted the 2021 agreement as a 2027 settlement, not a guarantee for independence. Instead, he states that the fate of Bougainville is in the hands of PNG’s parliament, who has the power to ratify plans, or completely renege on them. Bougainville’s president, Ishmael Toroama, made concessions early in discussions, but holds a hardline position in Bougainville’s independence in 2027.

Looking for Mining equipment to access Gold & Cooper Reserves

Papua New Guinea’s government continues to calculate the politics and risks of allowing or denying independence. Bougainville has the now dormant Panguna Mine, which holds copper and gold reserves. If PNG gives Bougainville independence, they will lose access to these potential resources. Neither Bougainville or PNG has the funding necessary for the $8 to $10 billion USD price tag to reopen the mine. That honor would likely fall back into the hands of Bougainville Copper Limited, the same firm that held control when the mine was last functional. Whomever holds sovereignty over the land will receive the payments or royalties agreed upon with the Australian company.

For the sake of natural resources and setting a strong example, the likelihood of PNG honoring terms of the 2021 agreement are beginning to seem hollow. They are willing to accept the risk of future conflicts on the assumption that Bougainville will relent if delays in discussion are stretched far enough. For now, the future of Bougainville is steeped in intrigue and political maneuvering, and only time will tell if the world map needs updating.

Sources:

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